Polymarket vs Binance: What 30 Days of Live Arbitrage Audit Show
Logical arbs (YES+NO < $1) win 100% by construction. Endgame model signals win ~95%. Here's the 30-day public audit of every call we made — fills, fees, and realised PnL.
BenJune 9Authors
Ben
Founder, PolyQuantLab
Founder of PolyQuantLab — sub-second Polymarket orderbook collection, walk-the-book backtests, paper trading, and a public mispricing audit. Trading crypto markets since 2017; writing about prediction-market microstructure because nobody else is.
Most recent articles by Ben
BenJune 9Polymarket BTC Up/Down 5-Min Markets: Walk-the-Book Reality Check
Most BTC up/down backtests assume mid-price fills. The real book is 11¢/89¢ for half the market's life. Here's what walk-the-book actually pays — and why your strategy probably doesn't survive contact with it.
BenJune 8Polymarket ETH Up/Down: How Often Does It Match Binance Spot Direction?
Resolved ETH Up/Down markets are an unbiased estimator of direction over their horizon — sometimes. Here's the actual match rate by event_type, and where Polymarket ETH books lead vs lag the spot move.
BenJune 7Paper-Trade Polymarket Without Risking Capital (and Without Lying to Yourself)
The honest way to paper-trade Polymarket: live snapshots, walk-the-book fills, real fees, and a paper-vs-backtest baseline that catches when reality stops matching the simulation.
BenJune 65 Polymarket Strategies Backtested on Real BTC, ETH, and SOL Books
Threshold entry, mean reversion, time-before-resolution, condition_based, and logical arb only — backtested on real walk-the-book fills with real fees. Which survive the slippage, which don't.
BenJune 5The Real Cost of Trading Polymarket: Fees, Slippage, and Walk-the-Book Math
Polymarket charges 2% taker. That's the easy part. The hard part is walking the book, paying the spread, and discovering your strategy needed a 65% win rate not 51% to break even.
BenJune 4