Polymarket vs Binance: What 30 Days of Live Arbitrage Audit Show
Logical arbs (YES+NO < $1) win 100% by construction. Endgame model signals win ~95%. Here's the 30-day public audit of every call we made — fills, fees, and realised PnL.
BenJune 9Market Dissections
BTC, ETH, and SOL Up/Down markets pulled apart — book depth, fee impact, direction match vs spot, and resolution-time dynamics.
Most recent articles in Market Dissections
BenJune 9Polymarket BTC Up/Down 5-Min Markets: Walk-the-Book Reality Check
Most BTC up/down backtests assume mid-price fills. The real book is 11¢/89¢ for half the market's life. Here's what walk-the-book actually pays — and why your strategy probably doesn't survive contact with it.
BenJune 8Polymarket ETH Up/Down: How Often Does It Match Binance Spot Direction?
Resolved ETH Up/Down markets are an unbiased estimator of direction over their horizon — sometimes. Here's the actual match rate by event_type, and where Polymarket ETH books lead vs lag the spot move.
BenJune 7